Analyzing raw Pokémon card prices from every Pokémon TCG expansion released since 1999.
Abstract
Pokémon card prices are often discussed through record-breaking auctions or PSA 10 sales, but those represent only a small fraction of the market. This analysis instead examines raw (ungraded) Pokémon card prices from every Pokémon TCG expansion released since 1999, providing a clearer picture of how the market values cards before grading premiums are applied.
After plotting the data, several clear trends emerge:
- Umbreon has become the dominant modern Pokémon, producing the highest-value raw cards in recent years.
- The 2002–2007 era remains the strongest period for high-value collectibles, containing many of the most expensive cards ever printed.
- Charizard demonstrates unmatched consistency, remaining one of the hobby’s most valuable Pokémon across multiple generations.
- The 2009–2018 era appears surprisingly quiet, raising the question of whether cards from this period may currently be undervalued.
- Neo Destiny Shining Tyranitar (#113) unexpectedly stands among the most valuable raw Pokémon cards ever released.
While rarity, artwork, and nostalgia all influence prices, viewing every set together reveals fascinating long-term trends that individual cards alone cannot show.
The Dataset
This analysis includes raw (ungraded) market prices from Pokémon expansions released between 1999 and 2025.
Each point in the scatter plot represents a single Pokémon card plotted by:
- X-axis: Release year
- Y-axis: Current raw market price (USD)
PSA, BGS, and CGC graded prices are intentionally excluded. Since grading can dramatically increase a card’s value, especially for Gem Mint copies, using only raw prices provides a more consistent comparison across different eras.
Highest-Valued Raw Pokémon Card from Each Release Year
| Year | Set | Pokémon | Card No. | Raw Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Base | Charizard | #4 | $773.51 |
| 2000 | Neo Genesis | Lugia | #9 | $1,299.96 |
| 2001 | Neo Discovery | Umbreon | #13 | $560.22 |
| 2002 | Neo Destiny | Shining Tyranitar | #113 | $4,249.99 |
| 2003 | Aquapolis | Lugia | #149 | $2,225.00 |
| 2004 | FireRed & LeafGreen | Charizard ex | #105 | $1,699.99 |
| 2005 | Deoxys | Rayquaza ★ | #107 | $2,500.99 |
| 2006 | Dragon Frontiers | Charizard ★ δ | #100 | $4,000.00 |
| 2007 | Power Keepers | Flareon ★ | #100 | $1,999.95 |
| 2008 | Stormfront | Charizard | #103 | $668.75 |
| 2009 | Rising Rivals | Snorlax LV.X | #111 | $797.47 |
| 2010 | HS—Triumphant | Gengar | #94 | $493.44 |
| 2011 | Call of Legends | Rayquaza | #SL10 | $543.19 |
| 2012 | Dark Explorers | Gardevoir | #109 | $693.66 |
| 2013 | Plasma Storm | Charizard | #136 | $1,150.00 |
| 2014 | Flashfire | M Charizard-EX | #108 | $1,000.62 |
| 2015 | Ancient Origins | M Rayquaza-EX | #98 | $972.41 |
| 2016 | SM Black Star Promos | Mewtwo & Mew-GX | #SM191 | $339.49 |
| 2017 | Shining Legends | Mewtwo-GX | #78 | $739.96 |
| 2018 | Celestial Storm | Rayquaza-GX | #177 | $288.89 |
| 2019 | Team Up | Gengar & Mimikyu-GX | #165 | $1,624.49 |
| 2020 | Champion’s Path | Charizard V | #79 | $263.95 |
| 2021 | Evolving Skies | Umbreon VMAX | #215 | $2,396.28 |
| 2022 | Silver Tempest | Lugia V | #186 | $531.28 |
| 2023 | Scarlet & Violet Black Star Promos | Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat | #85 | $1,085.97 |
| 2024 | Twilight Masquerade | Greninja ex | #214 | $396.94 |
| 2025 | Prismatic Evolutions | Umbreon ex | #161 | $1,503.91 |
Observation 1: Umbreon Rules the Modern Era
The most obvious recent trend is the rise of Umbreon.
Historically, Charizard dominated conversations about valuable Pokémon cards. However, in recent years Umbreon has emerged as the market leader.
Multiple modern Umbreon cards now exceed $1,000 in raw condition, including cards such as:
- Umbreon VMAX Alternate Art (Evolving Skies)
- Umbreon ex Special Illustration Rare (Prismatic Evolutions)
Unlike many Pokémon that rely on a single iconic card, Umbreon has repeatedly produced premium chase cards across different releases.
This suggests collectors are chasing Umbreon itself, rather than simply one exceptional artwork.
It is an impressive shift for a Pokémon that spent much of the hobby’s early history outside the spotlight.
Observation 2: 2002–2007 Was Pokémon’s Golden Age
Perhaps the strongest pattern in the dataset is how many expensive cards originated between 2002 and 2007.
This period contains a remarkable concentration of elite collectibles, including:
- Charizard
- Rayquaza
- Lugia
- Flareon
- Gold Star Pokémon
- EX-era chase cards
Many of these cards now sell for well over $2,000 in raw condition.
Several factors likely contributed to this:
- lower print runs
- difficult pull rates
- memorable artwork
- strong nostalgia among today’s collectors
Rather than one extraordinary expansion, the entire era consistently produced valuable cards.
Looking at the scatter plot, the early-to-mid 2000s clearly stand apart from every other period in Pokémon history.
Observation 3: Charizard’s Value Never Goes Out of Style
If one Pokémon represents long-term consistency, it is Charizard.
Rather than depending on one legendary card, expensive Charizard cards appear throughout nearly every generation.
Examples include raw cards worth approximately:
- $700
- $1,100
- $1,700
- $4,000
spanning multiple eras of the Pokémon TCG.
This consistency is remarkable.
Many Pokémon experience one period of popularity before fading from the market.
Charizard, by contrast, continues producing premium chase cards regardless of generation.
Whether the artwork changes or the mechanics evolve, collector demand for Charizard remains incredibly resilient.
Observation 4: Is the 2009–2018 Era Undervalued?
One of the most surprising observations comes from what is missing.
Between roughly 2009 and 2018, relatively few cards exceed the $2,000 mark.
Most valuable cards from this period fall somewhere between $100 and $700, with only a handful reaching four figures.
This naturally raises an interesting question.
Could this era be undervalued?
Several explanations are possible.
Less nostalgia
Collectors who grew up during this generation are only beginning to enter their peak earning years.
As nostalgia increases, demand may continue rising over the coming decade.
Larger print runs
Many sets from this era were printed in greater quantities than earlier EX-era expansions.
Higher supply naturally limits long-term prices.
Fewer iconic chase cards
Although the era produced many beautiful cards, relatively few achieved the legendary status of:
- Gold Stars
- Crystal Pokémon
- Neo Shining cards
A future opportunity
If collector demand continues moving through generations, today’s overlooked cards could become tomorrow’s highly sought-after collectibles.
Only time will tell whether this period remains an outlier or eventually experiences a resurgence.
Observation 5: Neo Destiny Shining Tyranitar Is an Unexpected Giant
Perhaps the biggest surprise in the entire dataset is Neo Destiny Shining Tyranitar (#113).
Despite Charizard’s legendary reputation, Shining Tyranitar actually appears as one of the highest-priced raw cards ever released.
Its value even exceeds several famous Charizard cards.
Several factors may explain this:
- extremely low supply
- Neo-era popularity
- iconic Shining artwork
- strong collector demand
- relatively few high-quality surviving copies
While Charizard dominates headlines, Shining Tyranitar quietly ranks among Pokémon’s greatest collectibles.
It serves as a reminder that scarcity, condition, and collector demand can sometimes outweigh mainstream popularity.
Overall Market Structure
Looking beyond individual Pokémon, the scatter plot reveals another important characteristic of the hobby.
Most Pokémon cards are worth relatively little.
Only a tiny percentage become four-figure collectibles.
Instead of following a normal distribution, Pokémon card prices resemble a steep pyramid:
- thousands of inexpensive cards
- hundreds of moderately valuable cards
- only a handful worth several thousand dollars
The market is driven by a very small number of exceptional cards that sit far above everything else.
Final Thoughts
Looking across more than 25 years of Pokémon TCG history reveals several fascinating patterns.
The EX era remains one of the strongest periods in the hobby’s history.
Umbreon has emerged as the defining Pokémon of the modern market.
Charizard continues proving that few collectibles can match its consistency across generations.
Meanwhile, the relatively quiet 2009–2018 period raises an intriguing possibility that today’s overlooked cards could become tomorrow’s sought-after collectibles.
Finally, perhaps the biggest surprise of all is that one of Pokémon’s greatest treasures isn’t Charizard—it is Neo Destiny Shining Tyranitar (#113), a card whose raw market value quietly rivals or exceeds many of the hobby’s most famous icons.
As new expansions continue to release and nostalgia shifts to younger generations, it will be fascinating to see whether these trends continue—or whether the next legendary Pokémon card is already hiding in today’s booster packs.
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